The future of the Karabakh crisis after the developments of 2020 based on the convergence and divergence of stakeholders

One of the geopolitical developments after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the South Caucasus was the conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Karabakh region, which led to two wars. The first Karabakh war between 1988 and 1994 and the second war in 2020 resulted in two completely different results for the parties. If in the first war, in addition to Karabagh, Armenia captured seven other regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan outside of Karabagh; With the defeat in the second war, he was forced to liberate the occupied lands of Azerbaijan after several decades. In the recent war, both sides signed a ceasefire agreement (November 10, 2020) with the mediation of Russia; But the recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and the defeat of Armenia, the geopolitical games formed after the ceasefire agreement, as well as the new policies of Azerbaijan and Turkey, have made the future of the crisis in this region ambiguous and complicated. Using the game theory, the present research seeks to answer the question that based on the convergence and divergence of stakeholders, what is the future available for the Karabakh crisis? The research approach is exploratory and using the method of structure and strategy of stakeholders to answer this question. The data collection method is based on a semi-structured expert questionnaire. Based on software analysis, the intervention of regional and international actors and the conflicting interests of each of the actors in this region have caused the complexity and instrumentalization of the crisis, and the continuation of the crisis will cause its consequences to spread to other regional security complexes. became.