Investigating the Impact of Cognitive Biases on Strategic Security Decision-Making
Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Researcher, Institute of Homeland Security, Research Institute of Holy Defense, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Institute of Homeland Security, Research Institute of Holy Defense, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The present study aimed to investigate the impact of cognitive biases on the strategic security decision-making process, focusing on the strategic decision-making dimension, and to answer the question of which cognitive biases have the greatest impact on this dimension. The research type is descriptive in nature and applied in purpose. The research method is mixed. The statistical population includes security and strategic experts and experts in the fields of psychology and cognitive sciences with master's and doctoral degrees who had experience and responsibility in the security or psychological fields. The samples were selected purposefully according to the inclusion criteria until they reached theoretical saturation. In this study, the document analysis method was used to review relevant sources and texts, and the field method (questionnaire and interview) was used to obtain the opinions of the experts. The mean, standard deviation, standard error, Fisher's nonparametric test, and SPSS-24 software were used to analyze the collected data. The findings of the study showed which cognitive biases have the greatest impact on the strategic decision-making dimension in strategic security decisions. Based on the results of the study, it was determined that among the biases known to date, which are the most effective biases on the strategic decision-making dimension of strategic decisions. It is suggested that future research examine the impact of the important biases obtained from this study in a specific security organization or a specific social crisis.
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